Cityscape in Egypt

Egypt Interest Rate

Egypt Interest Rate

Overnight Deposit Rate in Egypt

The Overnight Deposit Rate ended 2022 at 16.25%, doubling the 8.25% end-2021 value, and in line with the reading of 8.25% a decade earlier. For reference, the average Overnight Deposit Rate in the Middle East & North Africa region was 5.80% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Egypt Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Egypt from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Central Bank of Egypt.

Egypt Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Overnight Deposit Rate (%, eop) 16.75 12.25 8.25 8.25 16.25

Central Bank holds surprise meeting in March and accelerates tightening pace

On 6 March, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) held a special monetary policy committee meeting, originally scheduled for 28 March. The CBE sharply accelerated the pace of its tightening cycle, hiking rates by a whopping 600 basis points—the biggest increase on record—bringing the overnight deposit, overnight lending and main operations rates to 27.25%, 28.25% and 27.75%, respectively. The increase came on the heels of February’s 200 basis point increase and brought the cumulative rate rise since March 2022 to 1,900 basis points. Moreover, the CBE let the Egyptian pound depreciate significantly against the USD.

Headline inflation climbed to record highs and inflation expectations remain markedly above the CBE’s 5.0–9.0% target band beyond Q4 2024 due to foreign exchange shortages and external spillovers. Against this backdrop, the CBE decided to hike and reaffirmed its commitment to price stability; the Bank said it was aiming to bring the real interest rate into positive territory in order to speed up the disinflation process and anchor inflation expectations. The CBE also noted that closing the gap between the official and the parallel market exchange rates was necessary and thus it would “allow the exchange rate to be determined by market forces”.

In its communiqué, the Central Bank did not provide explicit forward guidance. That said, it noted that risks to the inflationary outlook remained skewed to the upside and that the policy rate would, therefore, remain in contractionary territory “for as long as necessary to achieve the desired disinflation course.” The Bank canceled its 28 March meeting and is scheduled to convene next on 23 May.

Regarding future policy moves, analysts at the EIU commented: “We believe that the extraordinarily tight stance will be held steady for the remainder of the year. Another temporary increase is possible as inflation continues to rise in early 2024, but this would be reversed in the second half. Sustained rate cuts will then begin in 2025 as disinflation sets in.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Egyptian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Egyptian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Egyptian interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Egyptian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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